Nobel da Economia - 2004

Procurei informação acerca do Prémio Nobel da Economia de 2004 e é muito escassa e pouco acessível. Deixo aqui um contributo sintético, colhido directamente na fonte, acerca dos laureados e da natureza do seu trabalho.

The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences has decided to award the Bank of Sweden Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel, 2004, jointly to Finn E. Kydland, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh and University of California, Santa Barbara, USA, and Edward C. Prescott, Arizona State University, Tempe, and Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, USA
"for their contributions to dynamic macroeconomics: the time consistency of economic policy and the driving forces behind business cycles".

New theory on business cycles and economic policy
The driving forces behind business cycle fluctuations and the design of economic policy are key areas in macroeconomic research. Finn Kydland and Edward Prescott have made fundamental contributions to these areas of great significance, not only for macroeconomic analysis, but also for the practice of monetary and fiscal policy in many countries.

Time Consistency of Economic Policy
The higher taxation of capital households expect in the future, the less they save; the more expansive monetary policy and the higher inflation firms expect, the higher prices and wages they set, etc. The Laureates showed how such effects of expectations about future economic policy can give rise to a time consistency problem. If economic policymakers lack the ability to commit in advance to a specific decision rule, they will often not implement the most desirable policy later on.

Driving Forces Behind Business Cycles
Research by the Laureates also transformed the theory of business cycles by integrating it with the theory of economic growth. Whereas earlier research had emphasized macroeconomic shocks on the demand side of the economy, Kydland and Prescott demonstrated that shocks on the supply side may have far-reaching effects. In their business-cycle model, realistic fluctuations in the rate of technological development brought about a covariation between GDP, consumption, investments and hours worked close to that observed in actual data.

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Finn E. Kydland, born 1943 (60 years) in Norway (Norwegian citizen). Ph.D. from Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh in 1973. Professor at Carnegie Mellon University and University of California, Santa Barbara, USA.

Edward C. Prescott, born 1940 (63 years) in Glen Falls, NY, USA (US citizen). Ph.D. from Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh in 1967. Professor at Arizona State University, Tempe and researcher at Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, USA.